切换至 "中华医学电子期刊资源库"

中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志 ›› 2013, Vol. 02 ›› Issue (04) : 235 -239. doi: 10.3877/cma.j.issn.2095-3232.2013.04.007

所属专题: 文献

临床研究

急性生理学和慢性健康状况Ⅳ评分在评估肝移植术后患者预后中的应用
胡月云1, 刘媛2, 刘波2, 马盈盈3, 颜君1, 李铁花4, 胡爱玲5,()   
  1. 1. 510080 广州,中山大学护理学院
    2. 中山大学附属第三医院岭南医院普外科
    3. 中山大学附属第三医院肝移植中心
    4. 中山大学附属第三医院内科重症监护病房
    5. 中山大学附属第三医院护理部
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-14 出版日期:2013-08-10
  • 通信作者: 胡爱玲

Application of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation IV in predicting the prognosis of patients after liver transplantation

Yue-yun HU1, Yuan LIU2, Bo LIU2, Ying-ying MA3, Jun YAN1, Tie-hua LI4, Ai-ling HU5,()   

  1. 1. School of Nursing, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
  • Received:2013-05-14 Published:2013-08-10
  • Corresponding author: Ai-ling HU
  • About author:
    Corresponding author: HU Ai-ling, Email:
引用本文:

胡月云, 刘媛, 刘波, 马盈盈, 颜君, 李铁花, 胡爱玲. 急性生理学和慢性健康状况Ⅳ评分在评估肝移植术后患者预后中的应用[J/OL]. 中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志, 2013, 02(04): 235-239.

Yue-yun HU, Yuan LIU, Bo LIU, Ying-ying MA, Jun YAN, Tie-hua LI, Ai-ling HU. Application of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation IV in predicting the prognosis of patients after liver transplantation[J/OL]. Chinese Journal of Hepatic Surgery(Electronic Edition), 2013, 02(04): 235-239.

目的

探讨急性生理学和慢性健康状况(APACHE)Ⅳ评分用于预测肝移植患者术后住院期间病死率和入住重症监护病房(ICU)时间的价值。

方法

回顾性研究2006年2月至2009年7月在中山大学附属第三医院肝移植中心接受同种异体原位肝移植的195例患者临床资料。其中男171例,女24例;年龄(48±11)岁。所有患者均签署知情同意书,符合医学伦理学规定。收集患者APACHE Ⅳ评分所需要的参数、实际入住ICU时间、住院期间死亡情况,并计算患者APACHE Ⅳ评分分值、实际病死率、预测入住ICU时间、预测病死率,并绘制其预测患者死亡的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线。观察患者住院期间存活和死亡情况及其APACHE Ⅳ评分。应用ROC曲线研究APACHE Ⅳ评分预测患者住院期间死亡能力。采用Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验校准度分析APACHE Ⅳ评分系统预测患者住院期间死亡的准确性。住院期间存活者的实际入住ICU时间与预测入住ICU时间的比较采用Wilcoxon秩和检验,两者相关性研究采用Spearman秩相关分析。

结果

本研究195例患者中,存活168例,死亡27例,病死率为13.8%;总体患者APACHE Ⅳ评分为(41±22)分,其中存活患者的APACHEⅣ评分为(36±16)分,死亡患者为(75±25)分。APACHE Ⅳ评分预测患者住院期间死亡的ROC曲线下面积(A)为0.937,其对患者住院期间死亡的预测切点为56分,灵敏度为0.85,特异度为0.91,Youden指数为0.76。患者实际病死率为13.8%,APACHE Ⅳ评分预测患者病死率为3.8%。APACHE Ⅳ总体评分及30~60分、>60分组实际病死率的预测存在低估情况。经Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验发现APACHE Ⅳ评分对患者住院期间死亡预测拟合良好,校准度高(χ2=1.568,P>0.05)。患者实际入住ICU时间中位数为3.7(2.4,5.5)d,预测入住ICU时间为3.2(2.4~4.8)d。实际入住ICU时间明显长于预测入住ICU时间,两者差异有统计学意义(Z=3.760,P<0.05)。Spearman秩相关分析显示两者呈正相关(r=0.467,P<0.05)。

结论

APACHE Ⅳ评分对肝移植术后患者住院期间病死率有一定的预测价值,但对患者病死率和入住ICU时间存在低估情况。

Objective

To explore the value of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) Ⅳ in predicting mortality during hospital stay and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay (LOS) of patients after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT).

Methods

Clinical data of 195 patients [171 males, 24 females, mean age of (48±11) years old] who underwent OLT from February 2006 to July 2009 in Liver Transplantation Center, the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sun University were studied retrospectively.The informed consents of all patients were obtained and the ethical committee approval was received. The required parameters for APACHE IV, actual ICU LOS and mortality during hospital stay were collected. The APACHE Ⅳ scores, actual mortality, estimated ICU LOS, estimated mortality were calculated and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of predicting the patients' mortality was drawn. The survival, mortality and APACHE Ⅳ scores of patients during hospital stay were observed. The ability of APACHE Ⅳ in predicting mortality during hospital stay was analyzed using ROC curve, and the accuracy of APACHE Ⅳ in predicting mortality during hospital stay was analyzed using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. The actual ICU LOS and estimated ICU LOS of the survivals during hospital stay were compared using Wilcoxon rank sum test. The correlation between them was studied using Spearman rank correlation analysis.

Results

There were 168 survivals and 27 deaths with the mortality of 13.8%. The mean APACHE Ⅳ score was (41±22) for all the patients, was (36±16) for the survivals and(75±25) for the death. The area under the curve(A) value of APACHE Ⅳ in predicting mortality during hospital stay was 0.937. The predictive cutoff point was 56 with the sensitivity 0.85, specificity 0.91 and the Youden index 0.76. The actual mortality of the patients was 13.8% and the estimated mortality by APACHE Ⅳ was 3.8%. The actual mortality was underestimated by APACHE Ⅳ in the overall score, 30-60 scores and >60 scores groups. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-offit of APACHE Ⅳ in predicting mortality during hospital stay was good with a high calibration (χ2=1.568, P>0.05) . The median of actual ICU LOS was 3.7(2.4, 5.5)d, and the median of estimated ICU LOS was 3.2(2.4, 4.8)d. The actual ICU LOS was evidently longer than the estimated ICU LOS, and significant difference was observed between them (Z=3.760, P<0.05). There was positive correlation between the actual ICU LOS and the estimated ICU LOS by Spearman rank correlation analysis (r=0.467, P<0.05).

Conclusions

APACHE Ⅳ has a certain value in predicting mortality of patients after OLT during hospital stay, but it underestimates the mortality and ICU LOS.

图1 APACHE Ⅳ评分分辨患者住院期间死亡的ROC曲线
表1 APACHE Ⅳ评分不同分值患者的实际病死率与预测病死率
[1]
Leventhal J,Abecassis M,Miller J, et al. Chimerism and tolerance without GVHD or engraftment syndrome in HLA-mismatched combined kidney and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Sci Transl Med, 2012, 4(124): 124ra28.
[2]
Chaidos A,Patterson S,Szydlo R, et al. Graft invariant natural killer T-cell dose predicts risk of acute graft-versus-host disease in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. Blood, 2012, 119(21): 5030-5036.
[3]
Ahmed A,Keeffe EB. Current indications and contraindications for liver transplantation. Clin Liver Dis, 2007, 11(2): 227-247.
[4]
沈中阳,陈新国.临床肝移植. 2版.北京:科学出版社, 2010: 2-4.
[5]
Volk ML,Hernandez JC,Lok AS, et al. Modified Charlson comorbidity index for predicting survival after liver transplantation. Liver Transpl, 2007, 13(11): 1515-1520.
[6]
Zimmerman JE,Kramer AA,McNair DS, et al. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) Ⅳ: hospital mortality assessment for today's critically ill patients. Crit Care Med, 2006, 34(5): 1297-1310.
[7]
Zimmerman JE,Kramer AA,McNair DS, et al. Intensive care unit length of stay: benchmarking based on acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) Ⅳ. Crit Care Med, 2006, 34(10): 2517-2529.
[8]
赵耐青.临床医学研究设计和数据分析.上海:复旦大学出版社,2005: 241-252.
[9]
Knaus WA,Zimmerman JE,Wagner DP, et al. APACHE-acute physiology and chronic health evaluation: a physiologically based classification system. Crit Care Med, 1981, 9(8): 591-597.
[10]
Knaus WA,Draper EA,Wagner DP, et al. APACHE Ⅱ: a severity of disease classification system. Crit Care Med, 1985, 13(10): 818-829.
[11]
Knaus WA,Wagner DP,Draper EA, et al. The APACHE Ⅲ prognostic system: risk prediction of hospital mortality for critically ill hospitalized adults. Chest, 1991, 100(6): 1619-1636.
[12]
Doyle HR,Marino IR. Effect of donor age liver allograft function. Transplantation, 1996, 61(7): 1129-1131.
[13]
Yersiz H,Shaked A,Olthoff K, et al. Correlation between donor age and the pattern of liver graft recovery after transplantation. Transplantation, 1995, 60(8): 790-794.
[14]
Brinkman S,Bakhshi-Raiez F,Abu-Hanna A, et al. External validation of acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅳ in Dutch intensive care units and comparison with acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ and simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ. J Crit Care, 2011, 26(1): 105.
[15]
Nassar AP Jr,Mocelin AO,Nunes AL, et al. Caution when using prognostic models: a prospective comparison of 3 recent prognostic models. J Crit Care, 2012, 27(4): 423.
[16]
Knaus WA. APACHE 1978-2001: the development of a quality assurance system based on prognosis: milestones and personal reflections. Arch Surg, 2002, 137(1): 37-41.
[17]
Zimmerman JE,Alzola C,Von Rueden KT. The use of benchmarking to identify top performing critical care units: a preliminary assessment of their policies and practices. J Crit Care, 2003, 18(2): 76-86.
[18]
Berenholtz SM,Dorman T,Ngo K, et al. Qualitative review of intensive care unit quality indicators. J Crit Care, 2002, 17(1): 1-12.
[19]
Kramer AA,Zimmerman JE. A predictive model for the early identification of patients at risk for a prolonged intensive care unit length of stay. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak, 2010, 10: 27.
[20]
Vasilevskis EE,Kuzniewicz MW,Cason BA, et al. Mortality probability model Ⅲ and simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ: assessing their value in predicting length of stay and comparison to APACHE Ⅳ. Chest, 2009, 136(1): 89-101.
[1] 陈进宏. 腹腔镜活体供肝获取规范与创新[J/OL]. 中华普通外科学文献(电子版), 2024, 18(05): 324-324.
[2] 仲福顺, 余露, 范晓礼, 叶啟发. 肝移植治疗肝上皮样血管内皮瘤一例[J/OL]. 中华移植杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(05): 293-297.
[3] 刘冉佳, 崔向丽, 周效竹, 曲伟, 朱志军. 儿童肝移植受者健康相关生存质量评价的荟萃分析[J/OL]. 中华移植杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(05): 302-309.
[4] 贺健, 张骊, 王洪海, 蒋文涛. 肝移植术后脾功能亢进转归及治疗研究进展[J/OL]. 中华移植杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(05): 310-314.
[5] 胡宁宁, 赵延荣, 王栋, 王胜亮, 郭源. FMNL3与肝细胞癌肝移植受者预后的相关性研究[J/OL]. 中华移植杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(05): 283-288.
[6] 王淑贤, 张良灏, 王利君, 张慧, 郭源, 许传屾, 李志强, 蔡金贞, 解曼, 饶伟. 成人肝移植围手术期严重心血管事件危险因素分析及预测模型研究[J/OL]. 中华移植杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(04): 222-229.
[7] 邵世锋, 肖钦, 沈方龙, 张迅, 郝志鹏, 伍正彬, 谢晓娟, 王耀丽. 老年胸主动脉钝性伤的重症救治分析[J/OL]. 中华肺部疾病杂志(电子版), 2024, 17(05): 762-767.
[8] 傅斌生, 冯啸, 杨卿, 曾凯宁, 姚嘉, 唐晖, 刘剑戎, 魏绪霞, 易慧敏, 易述红, 陈规划, 杨扬. 脂肪变性供肝在成人劈离式肝移植中的应用[J/OL]. 中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志, 2024, 13(06): 789-794.
[9] 魏志鸿, 刘建勇, 吴小雅, 杨芳, 吕立志, 江艺, 蔡秋程. 肝移植术后急性移植物抗宿主病的诊治(附四例报告)[J/OL]. 中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志, 2024, 13(06): 846-851.
[10] 中华医学会器官移植学分会. 肝移植术后缺血性胆道病变诊断与治疗中国实践指南[J/OL]. 中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志, 2024, 13(06): 739-748.
[11] 中华医学会器官移植学分会, 中华医学会外科学分会外科手术学学组, 中华医学会外科学分会移植学组, 华南劈离式肝移植联盟. 劈离式供肝儿童肝移植中国临床操作指南[J/OL]. 中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志, 2024, 13(05): 593-601.
[12] 刘军, 丘文静, 孙方昊, 李松盈, 易述红, 傅斌生, 杨扬, 罗慧. 在体与离体劈离式肝移植在儿童肝移植中的应用比较[J/OL]. 中华肝脏外科手术学电子杂志, 2024, 13(05): 688-693.
[13] 刘春峰, 徐朝晖, 施红伟, 陈瑢, 马腾飞, 李鹏飞, 袁蓉, 陈建荣, 徐爱明. 机械通气患者肌肉减少症的诊断及其对预后的影响[J/OL]. 中华临床医师杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(09): 820-825.
[14] 张平骥, 徐钰, 李天水, 庞文翼, 符师宁, 张梦圆. 重症患者镇静治疗现状及期望的调查研究[J/OL]. 中华临床医师杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(06): 562-567.
[15] 李璇, 邓岚, 郭微, 邓永梅, 刘杰昕. 标准化皮肤管理流程在防治脑卒中患者失禁相关性皮炎中的应用[J/OL]. 中华脑血管病杂志(电子版), 2024, 18(05): 479-482.
阅读次数
全文


摘要